Another solid week is in the books as we went 2-1 which makes it a nice little run of 7-2 over the last three weeks. As always, I’ve identified three games that I like this week. 

ATS Week 5: 2-1
ATS Overall: 7-5

Carolina Panthers – 2 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Panthers have been trustworthy with Kyle Allen at QB (4-0) and they will continue to lean on the best player in the NFL in Christian McCaffrey. Not only do I see the Panthers being able to put up points in bunches against this sub-par Tampa Bay defense, but the Carolina pass rush should dominate as well. They are averaging four sacks per game and we all know that Winston is susceptible to mistakes when under pressure. I expect this line to get to -3 by kickoff which is a key number in terms of betting ATS. With that being said, #KeepPounding that line until Sunday.

Jacksonville Jaguars – 1 vs New Orleans Saints

The Jags opened up as a two point home dog this week but have already moved to a one point favorite. Minshew has looked surpassed all expectations and has kept the Jaguars competitive in every game this season. Despite not having Jalen Ramsey the past couple weeks, their defense is still solid and they play better at home. Meanwhile, Teddy Bridgewater is coming off the game of his life and I find it hard to see him have success against Sacksonville. I mentioned the three points of movement in this line and that is with 77% of bets on the Saints here which suggest very significant reverse line movement meaning sharps are on the home dog here and I have to back that side as well.

Kansas City Chiefs -5 vs Houston Texans

I love to take advantage of overreactions in the betting markets and I think that’s what we are getting here with these teams. We all saw Houston put up a ton of points against Atlanta and Kansas City get handled by the Colts. With that being said, I would not want to bet against Patrick Mahomes at home and coming off an embarrassing primetime loss. Kansas City’s defense is also much better at home and should be able to get to Watson many times and possibly force some turnovers. This line actually opened up at -6.5 but money came in on the Texans most likely after that Colts game but I’ll take the better price with KC who is likely to get Tyreek Hill back this week as well.