DraftKings Tournament Breakdown: Week 10
Quarterback
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints, $6,700
Drew Brees in the Superdome is free money that anyone can have for a reasonable cost of $6,700.
First, Brees has been unstoppable at home in his previous five seasons:
- 28.8 points per game
- 2.7 touchdowns per game
- 322.6 yards per game
If that weren’t enough, Atlanta has been crushed through the air this season. They are 29th in the league in opponents yards per attempt at 8.4.
Finally, the Saints have an implied team total of 32 points. No other team has a total of even 28. His touchdown projection is through the roof and the only question is who are you stacking him with?
Running Back
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints, $8,200
Kamara hasn’t topped 17 fantasy points in four games (seven weeks because of a bye and two missed games) and he’s been under 20 in four of his past five. Not so coincidentally, those five games were all played with Teddy Bridgewater under center. He’s averaged 17.3 points with Bridgewater at quarterback.
Now he returns to the lineups with Brees throwing him passes and the reversion to his 2018 form is going to hit harder than most realize. He averaged 23.6 points per game last year and Brees played in all of Kamara’s outing.
Moving off of Michael Thomas and onto Kamara also leverages the heavy ownership Thomas is going to see without sacrificing much correlation.
Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns, $7,000
The popular way to attack this game and the entire slate is going to start with Devin Singletary. He’s a great play in cash games but there are ways for him to fail and those ways tend coincide with Nick Chubb being successful.
The Browns are favorites at home against a Buffalo team that has turned the ball over 1.5 times per game, 11th in the NFL.
Chubb is top-5 in the NFL in touches per game (22.4) and faces a Buffalo defense that has allowed the 12th most points per game to opposing backs. The Bills have allowed the third-fewest points to receivers.
Wide Receiver
Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens, $5,100
This generation’s John Brown faces arguably the worst pass defense in the NFL this week: Marquise Brown and the Ravens get Cincinnati. The Bengals are allowing their opponents to throw for 8.6 yards per attempt, worst in the NFL.
Plus, Brown has a 13.4 average depth of target, top-30 in the NFL. He’s a high variance play with a high floor and ceiling matchup in Cincinnati. Brown’s simply underpriced for his upside against the worst team playing football right now.
Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals, $5,200
Christian Kirk is another player who is underpriced for his ceiling. Kirk is averaging 8.8 targets per game and has been on the field for at least 90% of the Cardinals’ snaps every week he’s been active.
This week he and Arizona play the Bucs in the second game with a slate-high 51-point total. The Cardinals are underdogs that have passed the ball on 61.4% of their plays this season.
They’ll be throwing even more if Vegas is correct with their Cardinals +4.5 line.
Even if you’re stacking other games, getting exposure to the Arizona/Tampa Bay game is important. Kirk is the best option to do so as their only receiver getting consistent volume (who’s also not dust).
Tight End
Austin Hooper, Atlanta Falcons,
You have to run Brees/Kamara back with someone from the Falcons and budgetary restrictions pretty much eliminate Julio Jones (but his volume isn’t necessarily worth the price either). Hooper is the next in line as the No. 2 on Atlanta in terms of targets (62) and costs $2,000 less.
Hooper also leads all Falcons receiving options with nine red zone targets. Jones is second on the team with six.
Dollar for dollar, Hooper is the best play on the Falcons in stacks of this game.
Defense
Cleveland Browns, $2,500
If you’re running Nick Chubb, there’s really no reason not to run it back with Cleveland’s defense. They’re the cheapest home favorite on the main slate.
The Browns are 8th in the NFL with 25 sacks and their bye week is already behind them. Conversely, Josh Allen is top-10 in sacks taken at 21. The Browns would be the chalkiest defense of the week if they didn’t have the name brand of a dysfunctional franchise. Leverage that and stack them with Chubb.