Quarterback

Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns, $5,900

Baker Mayfield’s early-season disappointments set him up for a complete 180 this week. Not only does he face the Dolphins--who most college offenses could put up points on--but he’s also been quietly starting that turnaround even before this week.

First seven games:

• 1.7 interceptions per game
• 3 sacks per game

Last three games

• 0 interceptions
• 1.7 sacks per game

Last season Baker showed off his weekly ceiling with four top-10 weekly finishes in his rookie campaign. They have since added Kareem Hunt and Odell Beckham to he squad. It may have taken them half a season to start meshing but if Mayfield can continue to limit his mistakes, he may be the gunslinger every DFS player hoped he’d be. 

On top of that, our ownership projections currently have him just under 3% ownership. I don’t think his ownership will truly be that low but if the projections mean anything, he’s still going to be a sneaky play. 

Running Back

Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars, $7,300

If the season ended today, Leonard Fournette would have 229 touches for 1,183 yards and a lone touchdown. That would be the eighth-most touches and the fourth-most yards for a player who scored just once. This is despite the fact that he is third in the league in touches per game (22.9). He’s also 10th in routes run and 6th in targets.

Fournette is getting more volume than almost any other back in the league and he’s priced under eight different runners. Touchdown regression will hit eventually and when it does you’ll want to be on Fournette.

Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns, $5,400

Freddie Kitchens saw the Browns waste away a talented receiver back in Duke Johnson last season and seems dead-set not to repeat the mistakes of his predecessors this season. They have had Kareem Hunt on the field for two games and he already has 17 targets. For reference, Nick Chubb has 37 targets in five times as many games. 

No one is going to be on Hunt because of his limited rushing role—he has 10 carries in two games with just one coming in the red zone—but that rarely keeps people off guys like James White and Tarik Cohen. If you look at Hunt’s role like you look at those players’ roles, he’s an ideal stacking with Mayfield.

Wide Receiver

Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns, $7,00

This season, 12 wideouts have an air yards share of 35% or greater. The average touchdown total for those players is 4.8. Including T.Y. Hilton and Tyrell Williams, who have both missed multiple games, no receiver in that group has fewer than four scores...except for Odell Beckham Jr.

This week he gets a Miami defense that has allowed opposing receivers to catch 15 scores this year. That mark trails only the Buccaneers.

If you’re running Mayfield you have to stack him with a wideout and regression + air yards = fantasy points.

D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers, $6,400

D.J. Moore is one of the league’s true alpha receivers and it is really beginning to show. Since Week 6, he’s is 5th in the NFL in targets (55) and 9th in air yards (600). 

On the entire season, Moore is 7th in the NFL in targets at 94 but he has just one touchdown. Much like OBJ or Uncle Lenny, bet on volume and you’ll find the touchdowns.

Finally, the Panthers are 8.5-point dogs, indoors, at the Super Dome. They’re going to be passing a lot and they’ll be passing against a defense that doesn’t appear to be getting Marshon Lattimore back yet. It’s wheels up for D.J. Moore per usual.

Tight End

Noah Fant, Denver Broncos, $3,900

The Broncos have played three games since they traded Emmanuel Sanders to the 49ers. In that span, Noah Fant leads the team in targets (23) and is second on the team in air yards (149).

Without Sanders occupying the short to intermediate parts of the field, the Broncos have clearly looked to Fant to fill the void. Running Fant back with Devin Singletary is going to be a high-upside but very low-owned secondary stack this week.

Defense

Cincinnati Bengals, $2,100

The best part about running the Bengals defense is that it doesn’t preclude you from running a single Steeler in the same lineup. James Washington and Vance McDonald are both good plays this week because of the massive influx of volume they’re going to see, not because Pittsburgh has a record-setting offense. Right now, Pittsburgh is without their starter at:

• Quarterback
• Running Back
• Wide Receiver

They also play on the road against a divisional opponent. Cincinnati is so cheap and they’re in a good spot considering the weapons Mason Rudolph has.