Quarterback

Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints, $5,900

Drew Brees plays at home, in the Superdome, and is a favorite with a reasonable team total of 23.5 points. This is an obvious spot to play Brees and we have him projected around 1% ownership. 

Brees at home has been money as long as the NFL has featured forward passing:

• Brees (as a Saint) at home - 26.9 fantasy points per game
• Brees away - 22.6 fantasy points per game

The matchup between the Saints and 49ers features the 2nd and 9th scoring offenses. If it’s going to be under-owned that means we should be going overweight on it.

Running Back

Kenyan Drake, Arizona Cardinals, $5,200

Last week Kenyan Drake got 18 opportunities—13 on the ground and five through the air. David Johnson was given four carries and two targets. Most importantly, Johnson touched the ball once in the first half. His other five came in the half that started with the Cardinals down 20. He’s exclusively a backup at this point.

Drake has been very efficient as a rusher since leaving Miami. He’s averaging 4.5 yards per carry versus his 3.7 with the Dolphins.

He’s also getting the volume with Arizona. Over four games he’s averaged 13.5 carries and 4.5 receptions per game. Get the bell-cow in Arizona before his price goes up.

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns, $8,000

The Browns play host to Cincinnati this week as 8.5-point favorites and their receiving options are shaping up to be popular plays. Both Odell Beckham Jr. (12.3%) and Jarvis Landry (8.7%) are projected for more ownership than their running back counterpart Nick Chubb (7.1%).

Cincinnati has also been a sneaky run-funnel this season. They are the 10th-toughest team against opposing receivers but they’re allowing the 8th-most points to backs.

This is largely due to the fact then when you lose as often as Cincy does, teams tend to run a lot against you. Cincinnati has allowed the 5th-most rush attempts as a defense.

Leverage the ownership on Browns receivers with the best fantasy option on the team: Chubb.

Wide Receiver

Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints, $8,300

If you’re playing Brees you have to run it back with one of Alvin Kamara or Michael Thomas. This week, the duo are incredibly cheap for what they have been priced throughout the season, but we’ll dig into Thomas as the better option here.

Thomas leads the NFL in:

• Receiving yards - 1,1290
• Receptions - 110
• Catch percentage  - 83.3%

Despite being the best receiver in the league by a wide margin, Thomas is just 12th in touchdowns with six. When the touchdowns catch up he’ll break the slate.

Emmanuel Sanders, San Francisco 49ers, $5,800

Emmanuel Sanders has played on over half the 49ers’ offensive snaps in five games. He played two partial games while dealing with injuries. The give full games he’s played in also featured George Kittle, making them a reasonable sample of what we can expect from the team going forward.

In those five games, Sanders has seen a 21% target share and 34% share of the team’s air yards. Both of those marks are well ahead of Deebo Samuel and his share of the team’s air yards is even 6% higher than Kittle.

When Sanders is healthy, he’s the 49ers’ No. 1 wideout and the leader in terms of air yards. That makes him the best run-back option for Saints stacks.

Tight End

Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins, $4,000

Attack the Miami side of this game with DeVante Parker or Patrick Laird is the second way to get unique exposure to the game.

Mike Gesicki has been targeted six or more times in five straight games and his targets are at a much higher depth of target than most tight ends. Over that span, he ranks fourth in targets (32) but second in air yards (311).

Gesicki is also a 99th-percentile athlete to pair with his deeper aDOT. Buy Gesicki as the best value in Miami.

Defense

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $2,300

The two easiest ways to be a good DFS are to be at home and to be favored. The Bucs meet both criteria and are the cheapest option on DraftKings to do so. This week they face the Colts without T.Y. Hilton, Chester Rogers, or Eric Ebron.

Indy hasn’t been drawing up dead on offense with Jacoby Brissett under center...until recently. 

Brissett road touchdown variance early in the season but he has since come plummeting back to Earth, revealing his true backup nature:

• Weeks 1-7: 14 touchdown passes, 6.8% touchdown rate
• Weeks 8-13: 2 touchdown passes, 1.7% touchdown rate