Quarterback

Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons, $5,900

With no Patrick Mahomes on the main slate, Matt Ryan is this week’s best bet to hit the 300-yard bonus. He’s done so in all four games this season and he has thrown at least forty passes in three of those four games. Ryan leads all passers with 44 attempts per game.

This week he faces the Houston Texans in a game with a 49-point total. The Falcons are dogs on the road but Ryan is being overly downgraded relative to the quarterback opposite him, Deshaun Watson. 

Watson projects to be the most popular quarterback play on the slate while Ryan is barely cracking the top-10. Take the contrarian side of this total and back Ryan. 

Running Back

Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles, $4,500

The Eagles drafted Miles Sanders in the second round and have been getting the rookie touches early in his career. He has carried the ball at least ten times in each game this season and has averaged 2.5 targets per game.

Even if Sanders isn’t dominating the rushing volume, his matchup should see the team volume of rushing attempts spike as a whole. The Eagles are 14-point favorites against the Jets, who are expected to be without Sam Dam again this week. That means the Eagles could be sitting on a lead grinding away early in the game. 

Without any super-chalk running backs at the lower-end of pricing, paying way down at running back is going to give your lineups a unique construction. Everything sets up for this to be Sanders’ breakout game and playing him gives you a different roster than most in GPP’s.

Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers, $5,900

Aaron Jones is going to dominate the work out for Green Bay’s backfield with Jamaal Williams unlikely to play in Week 5. Williams was knocked out cold and taken off the field o a stretcher last week. That leaves Jones, Danny Vitale (a fullback), and Dexter Williams (a healthy scratch last week) as the running backs for Green Bay. 

Including last week, which Jamaal Williams played almost none of, he still accounts for 25.6% of the team’s carries. He’s also been targeted nine times to Jones’ twelve. Finally, with Davante Adams likely out as well, the Packers should end up leaning on Jones even more.

With all of the volume headed Jones’ way he should be clear chalk this week. Despite the positive indicators, Jones is projected at half of the ownership of the top-three backs of the slate.

Wide Receiver

Will Fuller, Houston Texans, $4,500

Will Fuller has yet to produce an explosion game this year but the volume he’s seeing says that it’s coming. Fuller has 399 air yards on the season, top-15 in the NFL. He’s outside the top-50 receiver in scoring. That makes Fuller, in a game with the highest total of the main slate, a great tournament play. The question isn’t, “should you play him?”, “it’s how do you play him?”.

Fuller and Matt Ryan are highly correlated as parts of opposing passing games but you so you don’t have to stack him with the QB chalk in Watson. On top of that, Deandre Hopkins appears to be a more popular play than Julio Jones. Both have similar projections so it may be wise to just take the ownership and price discount with Jones. 

Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens, $5,400

Continue to buy-low based on air yards with Marquise Brown. Brown is third in the league with 507 air yards but has disappointed since Week 1, when he put up a 4-147-2 stat line. Even with the Week 1 performance, Brown is outside the top-20 in fantasy points. 

Brown is seeing more volume than almost any receiver in the league. He plays Pittsburgh, who gave up 85 points in three weeks before getting to play the inept Cincinnati Bengals. Best of all, he is projected to be rostered on less than 5% of teams. He’s the best leverage play in tournaments this week.

Tight End

Austin Hooper, Atlanta Falcons, $4,500

Austin Hooper is another unique way to attack the Houston/Atlanta game. Ryan has targeted Hooper 33 times this season. That’s just four fewer targets than Julio Jones has seen. Hooper is fourth among tight ends in targets and receiving yards at 307. 

Hooper won’t be the highest owned tight end this week on a slate that paying up at the position will be popular. His touchdown potential is also higher than most other tight ends because of the total. 

Defense

Cincinnati Bengals, $2,500

No quarterback has been sacked more than Kyler Murray this season at 20. Cincinnati and Arizona each rank in the top half of the league in plays run as well. Arizona is eighth and Cincinnati is 16th. The matchup between these two should produce a large number of plays.

On top of the total game volume, Cincinnati will be facing mostly dropbacks from Murray. The Cardinals are passing on more than 70% of their plays. 

Take the cheap volume against the most sack-prone team in the league.