Quarterback

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens, $6,900

Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens host Cincinnati this week in a game that Vegas expects to be a blowout. The Ravens are 12-point favorites and have the highest implied team total at 29.75 points. Only the Chiefs’ team total matches them this week.

The Bengals are a particularly good matchup because they play fast and won’t pressure Jackson. 

The Bengals run a play every 26.7 seconds, eighth in the NFL. Their drives will be short in both time and play-count which will keep Baltimore’s offense on the field often.

Cincinnati has sacked the opposing quarterback nine times, a mark that is the sixth-fewest in the NFL. Jackson has been sacked that many times in the past two weeks after being sacked just six times in his first three games this season. The Ravens will get Jackson back to the clean pockets that lead him pass all over teams early in the season. Once this happens, his upside is uncapped.

Running Back

Damien Williams, Kansas City Chiefs, $5,700

After being sidelined for a few weeks due to injury, Damien Williams came back last week and quietly resumed his role as the Chiefs’ bell-cow back.

• Damien Williams - 55.6% snap share
• LeSean McCoy - 22.2%
• Darrel Williams - 22.2%

Beyond the snaps, Williams carried the ball nine times. No other running back recorded a rush attempt for the team. Finally, Williams saw four targets to McCoy’s two.

Williams is getting the bulk of the work for the highest projected scoring this team. That team is also a five-point favorite at home. He’s the biggest no-brainer that could be owned by less than 5% of tournament players. 

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints, $8,000

The last time Kamara was priced at $8,000 and coming off a down week was against the Seahawks three weeks ago. He saw less than 5% ownership and scored 37.1 points. Kamara has that type of upside every week because he’s seeing 15.5 carries and catching 4.6 balls per game with Teddy Bridgewater under center.

He has more than enough play-making ability to house call one any one of those touches. 

Most importantly (by far) is his domination of the red zone work for New Orleans. Kamara has 10 red zone carries while Latavius Murray has one. The Saints haven’t placed Murray into the Mark Ingram role where it counts. On top of that, Kamara is also tied with Michael Thomas for red zone target on the team at four.

Scores will come for Kamara, the low ownership is just a bonus.

Wide Receiver

Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals, $6,300

DraftKings pricing is correlated with, among other things, volume. The four highest priced receivers on this slate are 6th, 2nd, 7th, and 1st in target in the NFL. However, Tyler Boyd is fourth in targets (53) among wideouts and is the tenth highest-priced receiver. He hasn’t been under-performing on those targets either, he’s 11th in fantasy points.

The Ravens defense has regressed from their world-beater status of 2018 into a manageable matchup for a player with Boyd’s volume. As a massive underdog who calls passing plays on more than 70% of their snaps, the Bengals are going to attempt to set records for pass attempts this week. That’s the perfect setup for Boyd running easily converted routes out of the slot.

Stacking him with Jackson is a way to create differentiated lineups with the potential for massive volume.

Robert Woods, LA Rams, $5,400

Robert Woods is another great example of a player whose price does not match up with the volume they’re seeing. Cooper Kupp is overshadowing Woods but the veteran has still been targeted 47 times, fifth in the NFL. Unlike Boyd, those targets are actually coming from a good passer in Jared Goff. Woods is both a cheap way to get exposure to the Rams/49ers game that features a 51-point total and a great leverage play off Kupp, who should be the highest owned receiver on the slate. You can also stack the duo in the event that Brandin Cooks is unable to suit up. 

Tight End

Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles, $5,400

Zach Ertz has not been priced this low in over a year. This week he faces the Vikings who have a stout defense but have been susceptible to tight ends. Darren Waller went for 134 yards against them and Austin Hooper hit 77 yards on nine catches.

Ertz is getting the volume necessary to go to work on Minnesota as well. He’s top-two among tight ends in target share and market share of air yards with both marks at a minimum of 25%. Chase the volume with Ertz this week.

Defense

Arizona Cardinals, $1,900

This represents the fourth time in the past five years that a defense is priced under $2,000 on DraftKings. There are three such teams this week. Arizona is the play of the trio as the team what the best matchup. They play the Falcons at home this week. Atlanta has turned the ball over nine times this season, seventh-most in the NFL. Matt Ryan has also taken 12 sacks, tied for 12th among passers.

If David Johnson is injured and Chase Edmonds gets the start, stacking him with the Cardinals defense will be a way to get a unique build while rostering the chalkiest play of the slate.