Quarterback

Russel Wilson, Seattle Seahawks, $6,600

Lamar Jackson is projecting to be the highest owned quarterback this week and for good reason. He’s one of the two passers in a game with a 49-point total, third-highest of the slate. However, Russel Wilson is the quarterback at home and is the passer with a higher implied team total (26.25). This team total is the fourth-highest of the main slate. 

Wilson is finely being unleashed this season both as a passer and a rusher. He is attempting 31.5 passes per game, up 4.8 from 2018. He’s also carrying the ball six times per game, a four-year high for the veteran. If Seattle is going to hit their total, it’s going to be through Wilson.

D.K. Metcalf isn’t listed as one of my tournament wideouts but he’s a better player to stack with Wilson than Tyler Lockett. Metcalf has more air yards than Lockett this season because of his 15.1 average depth of target. His targets are higher variance giving him a significantly higher upside at a lower price ($4,800).

Marlon Mack, Indianapolis Colts, $6,000

Deandre Hopkins is going to be owned by more than 10% of DFS players and T.Y. Hilton has the potential to be the most popular play of the main slate at wide receiver. Despite this, neither passer in this game is going to be popular and the Over/Under has moved down a point since opening at 48. 

This makes Marlon Mack the perfect leverage play. The Colts would be smart to play his game like they played the Chiefs. Run effectively, generate pressure, and win in a low-scoring affair. If they are able to execute this game-plan, neither Hilton nor Hopkins will be likely to hit. Mack, on the other hand, would crush value at his minimal cost.

Running Back

Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars, $7,000

Leonard Fournette is a lock in cash games, the only question is if he’s going to be too highly owned to play in tournaments. Given the volume he sees, you should still be playing him in tournaments.

• 115 carries - 3rd in the NFL
• 36 targets - 7th
• 141 total touches - 2nd
• 23 red zone touches - 3rd

This week he faces Cincinnati. The Bengals have allowed 36.1 DK points to opposing backs, most in the NFL. Fournette is a great play even in tournaments because of his volume and the skeleton key to making your lineups with him unique…

Wide Receiver

Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals, $5,600

Last week, in a good spot, Tyler Boyd was a major bust. Marlon Humphrey got the better of him while the Bengals targeted Auden Tate against a far inferior corner in Brandon Carr. Tate saw 12 targets but caught just five of them. Even in a good matchup, he couldn’t produce. The Bengals should go back to Boyd against a Jalen Ramsey-less Jaguars defense. They are 4-point dogs at home. 

After a rough outing last week, Boyd still owns a 25% market share of Cincinnati’s targets and the Bengals have passed the ball at a league-leading, 71% rate.

After burning anyone who rostered him last week, Boyd is going to be owned by less than 5% of players. He’s the only way to run Fournette in tournaments.

Mike Williams, Los Angeles Charger, $4,600

Mike Williams has quietly overtaken Keenan Allen as the No. 1 receiver for the Chargers. Since coming back from a back injury, Mike Williams leads the league in air yards (347) and is out-targeting Allen 23-12. 

The Chargers/Titans total has moved up 2.5-points since opening representing the largest movement of the slate. Sharp money expects points to more points to be scored here than lets on making it an interesting game to have some equity in. Hunter Henry is going to be a top-two play at tight end but the air yards point to Williams. 

Tight End

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens, $4,900

Marquise Brown has yet to practice this week making Mark Andrews the Ravens’ de facto No. 1 receiver. Last week, in the same role, Andrews was dominant in terms of volume:

• 8 targets - 24% target share
• 72 air yards - 28% share

Running Wilson with Metcalf will be unique but it won’t be the stack you need to take down large field GPP’s. Double down on this game from the other side with Mark Andrews to create a more unique build.

Defense

Indianapolis, $2,000

Deshaun Watson is top-five in the NFL in sacks taken at 18 and the Colts’ defense is in the top half of the league in sacks per game at 2.6. Against the Chiefs, the Colts hit Patrick Mahomes eight times and sacked him four times. If their plan to shut down elite passers continues to work, the $2,000 price tag will be nothing.