Quarterback

Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers, $6,500

At the top of quarterback pricing, the decision is between Cam Newton and Jameis Winston. Both are great plays because of the high totals in their respective games—51 for Winston and 50 for Newton. Newton has the advantage of lower ownership for some of his weapons and his opponents. Newton accounted for 70% of Carolina’s total touchdowns last season when healthy and now he’s gotten the entire off-season to nurse his injured shoulder. 

Stacking Newton, Moore, and Rams will be significantly under-owned relative to Jameis-Godwin-Kittle stacks. For that reason, he’s the premier passer of the slate.

Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $6,600

Winston has two large advantages that Winston doesn’t have going for him.

1. Vegas has moved the Bucs/49ers total two points since it opened
   undefined
2. The Bucs have no rushing game to speak of
   undefined

The yards Tampa Bay accrues will come solely on the shoulder of Winston. In terms of projections, Winston is likely a better play than Newton. His higher ownership gives Newton an edge, but only slightly. In any tournament you enter multiple times, it’s best to be overweight on those two and fade the rest of the field. 

Running Back

Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars, $6,100

Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb, and Leonard Fournette all fall in a similar price range but Cook is projecting to be among the highest owned players on the slate. Chubb is playing in a game with a total significantly lower than either of his peers. That leaves Fournette as the highest upside play of the trio and he offers significant leverage over the Cook chalk. 

Jaguars offensive coordinator John DeFilippo has talked numerous times about getting Fournette involved more in the passing game which would give the bruiser multiple avenues to score points. No player offers the same combination of ceiling and leverage that Fournette does on this slate.

Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams, $7,900

Over the past two seasons Todd Gurley has 40 scores in 29 games, good for 1.4 per game. He plays on a top-two offense and the total for his game is over 50. He only costs $7,900.

All of this information should make Gurley the most popular back on the slate. Despite this, his ownership projection is more than modest. 

This could be the cheapest and lowest owned Gurley is for many weeks, even the rest of the season. On top of that, he’s a great player to stack opposite of Cam Newton.

Wide Receiver

D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers, $5,500

The calculus for playing D.J. more is relatively simple: Stacking a receiver with Newton is a must but Curtis Samuel is projecting to be one of the most popular pass-catchers on the slate. Moore also has an electric profile. He has a phenom-level breakout age combined with college dominance and undeniable athleticism. Samuel has the edge in cash games but Moore is the ultimate pivot in tournament games. 

Dede Westbrook, Jacksonville Jaguars, $4,800

Westbrook is next in line for value receivers than can pay big dividends on this slate. The Jaguars/Chiefs showdown owns the highest total on the slate at 51.5. Kansas City fielded a top-three offense all-time last year and only added weapons for Mahomes. Even Jacknsoville’s stout defense won’t be stopping the Chiefs.

That means negative game-script for the Jags and an uptick in volume for Dede. The Jags have a cavalcade of unproven or bad receivers behind Westbrook ranging from Marqise Lee to Chris Conley. None of them figure to threaten Westbrook for targets in a major way. That leaves Westbrook as an unquestioned No. 1 receiver in the highest total on the slate. His projected ownership of just over 10% is criminal. 

Tight End

O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $5,000

Howard somehow doesn’t appear to be pushing for a top-owned tight end on the slate despite the popularity of his quarterback and the game he’s playing in. That makes him the perfect arbitrage-play over his teammates Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, both of whom should garner a lot of popularity. 

Through two seasons in the NFL, Howard has led the league in yards per target for a tight end two teams. Now he gets to add that efficiency to an influx in volume with the departures of Adam Humpries and DeSean Jackson. 

Stacking Winston and Howard should be the jumping off point for any rosters overloading on the San Francisco/Tampa Bay game. That core for this game will be more unique that starting with receivers. 

Defense

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $2,200

DFS players chase volume at every position except for one: defense. Volume for a defense means more plays and the games with the most plays have high totals The key to winning the defense position in tournaments is capturing a score and more plays is the best way to do that. 

Initially, this game was a pick’em but the line has moved in favor of Tampa. That makes the Bucs the obvious choice as a home-favorite against the team that gave the ball away third-most last season.