Quarterback

Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans, $6,900

Ryan Tannehill is a gross name to utter at this point but his price is great and no defense skews more vulnerable to the pass than the Buccaneers:

• Percentage of yards allowed via passing - 81.7% - 1st
• Percentage of touchdowns allowed via passing - 70.6% - 9th

The Titan’s implied team total is 8th on the main slate at 24.5. Every quarterback with a higher implied team total costs at least $1,000 more except for one.

Finally, Tannehill is still a threat to get there on the ground as well. In his first start as a Titan, Tannehill carried the ball five times. The former receiver has hidden rushing upside in an already great matchup.

Running Back

Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks, $8,000

Every part of the Seattle offense is going to be chalky. They have an implied team total of 30 against an Atlanta team that imploded versus the Rams last week. Playing Carson without any other Seahawks gives your lineup great leverage over the Russel Wilson and Tyler Lockett ownership.

Carson is also priced up on Fanduel relative to other backs. He may end up as a significantly less popular play than choices around him like Leonard Fournette, furthering his standing as a great tournament play.

In Week 3, Seattle took an early lead over Arizona and Carson carried the ball 22 times and racked up 145 total yards. Because Seattle sat on their lead, Carson got nearly as many touches as Wilson had pass attempts. Only Will Dissly returned value, catching the team’s lone passing touchdown. Every other play was a bust.

If this happens again Carson is a great play on his own and is also a fade of the team’s passing attack.

Darrell Henderson, LA Rams, $5,600

With Malcolm Brown out last week, Darrel Henderson was the Rams’ No. 2 back and with their efforts to preserve Todd Gurley, that is a significant role. Brown has not practiced all week and is unlikely to play again.

Henderson played on a third of the team’s snaps and got 12 touches to Gurley’s 19. The Rams are 13-point favorites and have done a good job covering the spread this season at 5-2 ATS. Cincinnati is a lowly 3-4 ATS.

If the Rams take an early lead, Henderson could step up while they give Gurley a break to rest his 50-year old knees. That would give Henderson a lot of work on one of the best offenses in fantasy at an extremely low price.

Wide Receiver

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $7,400

Chris Godwin has cemented himself as the better receiver on the Bucs offense but they still haven’t seemed to notice. Mike Evans leads the team in air yards by nearly 200 hundred and has the same amount of targets as Godwin (55). Until that gap widens, Evans is always a great tournament play because of his 15.1 aDOT on those targets.

On Fanduel, where touchdowns are weighted heavily for scoring, Evans also has a massive edge. He has nine targets in the red zone, behind only James White for first in the league. He also has three more than Godwin on the season.

Taking a single shot on Seattle with Chris Carson and stacking another game like Tampa/Tennessee is going to be a high-upside move few GPP players are on this week.

Corey Davis, Tennessee Titans, $5,500

Despite the presence of rookie A.J. Brown, Davis has held onto the No. 1 receiver role in Tennessee. Through seven weeks Davis has a 17% target share and a 24% target share. With Delanie Walker looking unlikely to play on Sunday, both of those marks would lead all active Titans and both could also grow without the team’s tight end. 

Walker leaves behind a team-high five targets inside the 20. Brown and Davis are both fine stacking options but for $300 more, take Davis and the extra volume.

Tight End

Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles, $6,300

Volume has not been the issue for a struggling Zach Ertz this season. He has 555 air yards and 60 targets through seven games. Those marks are second and first among tight ends respectively. He’s also seventh in snap percentage, taking the field for 87.1% of the Eagles’ offensive plays.

The Eagles are 2.5-point dogs and the line has moved against them more than any other team except for Cleveland this week. Sharp money is betting on them trailing throughout their matchup with the Bills.

If that is the case, Carson Wentz and the Eagles will be forced to pass often. With Ertz’s top-five share of air yards and targets, that passing volume will be largely funneled to him. Fade the matchup concerns and take the volume at an ownership ad price discount with Ertz.

Defense

LA Rams, $5,000

Paying up for defense is going to be popular this week on Fanduel because New England has a phenomenal home matchup against the Browns. They are a better play than the Rams based on projections alone. However, whenever a position as random as defense could have a single option owned by a fifth (or more) of the field, leveraging that is a must. Do that by paying the same price for your defense but rostering the Rams. 

For Darrell Henderson to hit in a tournament-winning way, the Rams defense has to dominate anyways. Henderson will get some work throughout the game but receiving the bulk of the team’s carries in a clean-up role is how he hits his 90th-percentile outcome. 

That means he and the Rams defense are highly correlated this week in particular. Add in the leverage of fading New England and the Rams are a great contrarian play.