Kyler Murray, Arizona, $7,200

The matchup between Baltimore and Kansas City is going to be the most popular game to stack by leaps and bounds. With Cam Newton all but guaranteed to sit out, Arizona’s matchup with Carolina could easily go overlooked.

Despite this, their matchup is trending towards being the fastest-pace game on the main slate.

Both teams are averaging exactly 68 plays per game, tied for fourth in the NFL. They are also both in the top-10 in passing percentage. 

With 91 attempts through two games, Kyler Murray leads all passers in pas attempts. He also has a small amount of rushing equity: Murray has carried the ball three times in each of his first two starts. Upping the total plays run his game could boost that number past five.

This game is going to be living in the shadow of Kansas City’s marquee matchup making it the ideal place to find contrarian plays. That all starts with getting one of the best value passers on the slate in Kyler Murray. 

Running Back

Austin Ekeler, LA Chargers, $7,600

No matter what site you play on, Austin Ekeler is criminally underpriced. He’s scoring 28.4 points per game on Fanduel and is priced as the seventh running back. It’s not like Ekeler has gotten lucky either and he’s a lock to come back to Earth. He has gotten 41 touches so far, fourth among all backs. 

The Chargers are three-point favorites at home in a game with a 48-point total. It’s a good spot for Ekeler at a great price. Eating some chalk is fine at running back when the value is this good.

Dalvin Cook, Minnesota, $8,300

The Minnesota Vikings are committed to running the ball like no other team in the league. They have run the ball on 59.6% of their offensive snaps. Dalvin Cook is second in the league with 41 rush attempts. On top of that, he’s been involved in the passing game, catching five balls on five targets. No other running back on the Vikings has a target or catch so far.

The Vikings are 8.5-point home favorites against the Raiders this week. The last time the Vikings were home favorites they passed the ball 10 times and put the game in Cook’s hands. 

Cook is in a smash spot this week and is still being priced outside of the elite tier of backs at $8,300.

Wide Receiver

Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati, $6,600

John Ross hit the ultimate backdoor cover last week when he broke free for a 66-yard score with less than a minute left. The Bengals were down 31 points at the time. Ross is getting volume but he has still greatly out-performed expectations. 

Tyler Boyd, who has one more target on the year, has scored zero times compared to Ross’ six. Long plays and touchdowns are susceptible to a large amount of variance but volume isn’t and Boyd gets the edge there. Despite our best indicator of fantasy points being volume, Ross is $100 dollars more and projects to be a more popular play. 

In a game that Vegas expects the Bengals to be trailing often—they are six-point dogs in Buffalo—Boyd could easily outscore Ross. Leverage that in tournaments and reap the rewards when Ross finally busts.  

Amari Cooper, Dallas, $7,700

Dallas faces Miami this week and even though the game-script looks like it should be a Zeke game, the Cowboys have to put up points before they lean on the ground game. Their implied team total, 35, is the highest of any team on the slate.

Cooper is set up to dominate the receiving game on a revamped offense with Michael Gallup set to miss a few weeks. Gallup has led the Cowboys in air yards and target this season.

Cooper is the best receiver to take over Gallup’s volume. Devin Smith is a deep-ball specialist who’s averaged over 18 air yards per target. Randall Cobb, on the other hand, is exclusively a shallow-route slot player. 

Tight End

George Kittle, San Francisco, $6,600

George Kittle has fallen flat so far but he’s also been very obviously bitten by the variance bug. In the first week, Kittle had two touchdowns called back by penalties. Week 2: The 49ers threw three touchdowns and Kittle wasn’t on the receiving end of one.

He’s now priced outside of the elite three with Mark Andrew jumping him. He’ll also likely be the lowest own of the high-end tight ends.

This is the time to buy low on Kittle before he goes out and crushes his price like he did all of last season. 

Defense

New England, $5,000

This isn’t a week to get crazy at defense. The Patriots are 23-point home favorites against a third-string rookie passer. On Fanduel they are the exact same price as Dallas who are expected to be the best defense on the slate. Both defenses are in a tier of their own. The Cowboys generally garner public money and the same could follow in DFS. Take the Patriots against something called a “Luke Faulk”.