We came very close to a clean sweep last week but ultimately ended up 2-1 on the week. We’ll look to keep things moving in the right direction as we have a few games that I have some conviction about this week.

ATS Week 3: 2-1
ATS Overall: 2-4

Carolina Panthers + 4 @ Houston Texans

For starters, I am a firm believer that Kyle Allen is a significant upgrade from the version of Cam Newton that we saw in weeks 1 and 2. Allen is much more accurate which gives a big upgrade to Curtis Samuel and DJ Moore. Panthers opened as five point dog going into Houston but has already been bet down to four despite only 37% of tickets on Carolina. That would suggest the sharp money is on the Panthers here and I have to agree. This is approaching must-win territory for the Panthers to keep their playoff hopes strong. We also have a notable #Revenge factor dating back to Kyle Allen’s college days which is the icing on the cake.

Detroit Lions + 6.5 vs Kansas City Chiefs

The Lions came through for us last week against the Eagles and I think we have an interesting spot to go back to the well here. Obviously, the public is hammering the Chiefs and laying the points but despite 86% of tickets on the Chiefs to cover here, the line has stood firm at 6.5. This suggest some big money has backed the Lions with the points here and I have to agree. With Matt Patricia coaching, the under is 7-2 when the Lions are home underdogs courtesy of Bet Labs. I like the under more but still confident that the Lions can cover the points here at home especially if there are less points scored in this game than the public expects.

Buffalo Bills + 7.5 vs New England Patriots

This is the one bet I have the most conviction in this week. Buffalo is one of the toughest places to play in the NFL and despite the Patriots looking amazing through the first three weeks, I think they struggle here. Brady has yet to throw a touchdown in Baltimore since 2016 and that is credit to this excellent Buffalo secondary. The easiest way to attack the Bills is clearly on the ground and with Sony Michel looking like a disaster this season, I find it hard to see Patriots have success there as well. 80% of the tickets are laying the points with the Patriots but the line has only moved .5 in their favor which means that sharp money is backing the home dog here. I expect Buffalo to treat this as their Super Bowl as they have a legitimate chance to start 4-0 and uproot the top dog in their division. #BillsMafia gets the job done on Sunday.