After a rough week last week, it’s time to bounce back here in week 7 and I have a strong feeling that we will.

Last Week ATS: 1-2
ATS overall: 8-7

Atlanta Falcons + 3 vs LA Rams

The Falcons opened as a 3.5 home underdog this week but the line has moved half a point in their favor despite just 27% of tickets betting on the Falcons. This means that sharp money is on the Falcons at home here and I have to back that side as well. The Rams have not been nearly as good this year as we’ve seen them give up a ton of big plays on the defensive end. Additionally, their offense forgot to show up against the Niners last week. The Falcons are a much worse defense than the Niners but I do think they keep this game very competitive at home and may even win this game.

LA Chargers + 2 @ Tennessee Titans

I know this one won’t make people feel good if they watched the primetime game against the Steelers on Sunday. The Chargers looked out of sorts and if they repeat that performance then it is very likely they lose this game. It looks like that is the approach that sharps are taking here with some reverse line movement with just 37% of tickets on the Titans here at home. I’m on the square side here though because I expect the Chargers defense to bounce back along with getting Keenan Allen more involved on offense. I think the Chargers win this game straight up so the points are just a bonus.

Chicago Bears -3.5 vs New Orleans Saints

This play is basically just a play on the Chicago defense at home. I’ve been looking to fade Teddy Bridgewater wherever I can until Drew Brees comes back. The Saints offense has not looked good and even struggled against a weak Jacksonville defense last week. Now they head into Chicago to face what is arguably the best defense in the NFL. To make matters worse for the Saints, Alvin Kamara is dealing with a knee issue and is likely to be limited at the very least and possibly miss this game. It should be an ugly one but the Bears get the job done here at home.