ATS Last Week: 1-2
ATS This Season: 17-19

Miami Dolphins + 5 @ New York Jets

Anytime the New York Jets are the favorite to win a football game then it is almost worth just blind betting every time. They opened up as six point favorites here at home but money is coming in on the Dolphins and moved it to five but I still like it and think it could move to 4.5 by kickoff. The Dolphins are coming off a win over the Philadelphia Eagles last week and they are not as bad as the betting market is making out to be this week. They already beat the Jets earlier this season for their first win and getting five points here is just too much against a team that notoriously can’t get out of their own way in the Jets.

Cincinnati Bengals + 8.5 @ Cleveland Browns

Let’s face it - the Browns are terrible. They had everything break right for them this season to win the division and they continuously underperform. The Bengals with Andy Dalton back under center are underrated in general but especially in this matchup. For starters, divisional games tend to be much closer and lower scoring which would indicate there is value on such a wide spread. Additionally, the Browns are coming off a disappointing loss to Pittsburgh last week and now they face a team that has nothing to lose in the Bengals. This is one of my most confident bets in weeks for what it’s worth.

Arizona Cardinals + 2.5 vs Pittsburgh Steelers

I know the Steelers burned me last week but betting against this shell of a Pittsburgh team is still + EV long term. The Cardinals are coming off a letdown last week where they got torched and the market is overreacting to have them as a home underdog against the Steelers. 62% of bets are on Pittsburgh here as a road favorite but the line has yet to move and I’m expecting to see some reverse line movement in favor of the Cards here at home.