Start Em’

Mike Gesicki, TE, Miami Dolphins

Mike Gesicki was the cash-game lock at tight end but didn’t pay off, going for 28 yards on three catches and fumbling once. However, the volume has been there for Gesicki over the past five weeks:

• 26 targets - 7th
• 268 air yards - 5th

Gesicki has played on at least 59% on the Dolphins’ snaps in four of his last five games. Gesicki owns a 99th-percentile athleticism score and he’s getting the volume of a top tight end in the NFL. 

Josh Reynolds, WR, Los Angeles Rams

Brandin Cooks was ruled out for Week 11 Monday night and that means another game of Josh Reynolds taking over his role for the Rams. He has played on 90% of the Rams’ snaps in back-to-back weeks and is second on the team in target in their past two games. He leads the team in air yards over that span (205). 

Reynolds is playing the Cooks role in its entirety and even if he’s not Cooks, the role alone makes him worth starting in the flex spot. 

Brian Hill, RB, Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have a new starting running back and his name is Brian Hill. Devonta Freeman is expected to be out multiple weeks and Ito Smith was placed on IR recently. The Falcons are down to Brian Hill and Kenjon Barner in their backfield. Qadree Ollison will likely be active on Sunday as well but he hasn’t seen the field yet this season.

In Week 10, the Falcons gave Hill 20 carries. They gave Barner a  single carry. Hill also saw the only two targets for Atlanta backs after Freeman left.

Hill is not only a starting back, he’s a work-horse back until Freeman returns. 

Kyle Allen, QB, Carolina Panthers

The Panthers are taking on the Atlanta Falcons this week in a game with a 49.5-point total. That total is the third-highest of the week and Carolina has a top-five implied team total (27.5) on the week.

Ron Rivera and Carolina’s staff have also been letting Allen throw the ball more in recent weeks. Through Allen’s first three starts, he averaged 30 pass attempts per game. Since then, the young passer has averaged 36 attempts per game.

Now Allen will get to run that volume into a Falcons defense that has allowed opposing passers to average 7.9 yards per attempt (29th in the NFL) this season. Everything is set up for Allen to crush.

Sit Em’ 

Juju Smith-Schuster, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Start/Sits always exist within the context of your own team. Maybe you went running back-heavy and Juju is your best receiving option. If you did, you probably have to start him, and I am sorry for you.

If you have other plays at the receiver position, you should be strongly considering them over Juju. He has a single 100-yard game to his name this season. In his past six games, Juju has gone over 44 yards twice. 

The problem has been volume for Juju. He’s seeing six fewer targets per game than he did last season. He’s now a touchdown-reliant option with Mason Rudolph throwing him the football. That’s not exactly a recipe for fantasy points.

Kareem Hunt, RB, Cleveland Browns

Kareem Hunt came back from his suspension and was immediately incorporated into the Browns’ offense. He was targeted nine times and carried the ball four times. He totaled 11 touches.

This may seem impressive, but it becomes less so with context. Hunt accounted for 16.7% of the team’s caught seven passes in a game that saw Baker Mayfield throw 38 passes. That mark is his second-highest of the season. 

The Browns are home favorites this week which should see their passing percentage come back down from last week when they passed slightly more than their average for the season. That will tip the scales back in Chubb’s favor and Hunt will simply be Dontrell Hilliard plus.

Kyle Rudolph, TE, Minnesota Vikings

Kyle Rudolph’s back-to-back games with at least one touchdown could not be any more of a mirage. In his past two games, Rudolph has logged under 80% of the team’s snaps for only his second and third times of the season. Conversely, Irv Smith Jr. logged two of his three highest snap rate games. He also ran more routes in both of those games.

Rudolph is averaging 3.5 yards per target and 1.17 yards per route run this season. Both metrics are outside the top-30 tight ends. In the past two weeks, Smith has begun to encroach on the veteran’s role. Don’t let touchdowns fool you, Rudolph should not start on fantasy rosters.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Miami Dolphins

In case you are in desperate need of a starting passer with four teams on bye this week, I’m here to tell you Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t the answer. He has a history of putting up one or two flashy performances and immediately turning back into a pumpkin, sinking fantasy teams in the process. Last week, exactly that happened as he threw for 169 yards and pick without scoring.

This week, Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins face the Bills and their daunting pass defense. They are third in the NFL at 5.6 yards per attempt allowed. 

The Dolphins are without Preston Williams which means that Tre'Davious White will be on DeVante Parker for a large part of the game. That puts the burden of catching Fitzpatrick passes on guys like Allen Hurns, Mike Gesicki, and Jakeem Grant. Gesicki is a good play because of the volume he’s seeing. That doesn’t mean that volume will be high-quality and it doesn’t mean you should fire up the passer trying to get him the ball.