Start Em’

Darren Waller, Tight End, Oakland Raiders

The Raiders put together a weird performance on many fronts in Week 5. They not only covered the spread against Chicago but they outright defeated the Bears in London. They did so by taking a 17-point league, blowing it, then scoring as the clock wound down to defeat Chicago.

For fantasy, no player outside of Josh Jacobs had a good day. No receiving option for Oakland hit 50 yards but nine players caught a pass. This led to Darren Waller’s worst week of the season. 

However, one game does not make a man and Waller was still the No. 1 tight end in the NFL by receptions (37) after Week 5. He was also top-five in receiving yards and targets. 

Mike Williams, Wide Receiver, LA Chargers

Both Los Angels teams looked like dust last week but the Chargers did have a few fleeting bright spots. Mike Williams was one of them. Williams posted an unassuming 5-72-0 line but it was backed by 192 air yards. Williams is 11th in the NFL with 608 air yards on the season despite missing a game due to injury. 

In Williams’ previous three games, he’s out-targeted Keenan Allen 30-29 and has 181 more air yards than the veteran. Williams is a clear start and, at this point, he may be pushing Allen for the No. 1 job in LA.

Kerryon Johnson, Running Back, Detroit Lions

The combination of a tough opponent in the Minnesota Vikings and Kerryon Johnson’s 34-yard game on Monday night will have many off of the young back. He only saw 13 carries and caught just two balls in Week 6 but his market share number paint a prettier picture.

Johnson accounted for 81.3% of the running back carries in Detriot and half of the team’s four running back receptions. 

Johnson is outside the top-25 in targets (13) but he is top-five in air yards (72). The Lions don’t target him often but when they do, his targets tend to be valuable. He’s also top-12 in carries while already having his bye week in the rearview mirror. Chase the volume and keep starting Kerryon.

Josh Allen, Quarterback, Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen is an obvious start at quarterback for any team with one of the better quarterbacks in the league on their roster. However, because of his legs and high depth of target, Allen has to be considered among even the best quarterback plays in Week 7. 

Allen is averaging 8.2 rush attempts per game, good for second in the NFL. 

In 2018, Allen completed 8.8% fewer of his passes based on his depth of target (CPOE). This season his CPOE is only .8% off league average. He’s improved as a passer and this week he faces Miami, who have allowed opposing passers to go for an average of 24.8 fantasy points per game. No passing defense has been worse. Allen is arguably a top-five play this week at quarterback.

Sit Em’

Sam Darnold, Quarterback, New York Jets

Sam Darnold absolutely crushed a stout Cowboys defense to the tune of 338 yards and two scores. He single-handedly turned the Jets season around from an utterly lost cause to...well probably still a lost cause. The game did make Darnold seem like a locked-in fantasy starter.

This week he gets the Patriots and their stifling pass-defense. New England has allowed opposing passers to average 5.5 fantasy points per game despite the fact that teams have attempted the 11th-most passes against them. Darnold is likely a valuable quarterback for the coming weeks. He’s an ascending passer with talented weapons around him. This isn’t the week to play him against the best defense in the NFL, and potentially one of the best ever.

Delaine Walker, Tight End, Tennessee Titans

Marcus Mariota was benched for Ryan Tannehill on Sunday. That’s all you should need to know if you ever wind up asking, “Should I start this Titan on my fantasy team?”.

The Titans have run the 24th most plays per game (60.7) and only pass on 56% of their snaps on average. This wouldn’t be a problem if their limited targets were funneled to one or two players. That is not the case.

Delaine Walker has an 18% target share and has been held under five targets in four of six weeks. He also hasn’t scored since Week 1 when the Titans rocked the Browns.

Tennessee is a low-volume dysfunctional offense. It’s time to give up on all of their receiving options including Walker.

Adrian Peterson, Running Back, Washington Redskins

Adrian Peterson had a dominant day on Sunday, posting a 23-118-0 but it was easy to see coming: He was more than a field goal favorite against a bottom-two run defense. He still didn’t find the end zone and caught just two passes despite Chris Thompson leaving with an injury. 

Peterson is will get a lot of carries when his team has the lead and he can still carve up bad defenses. 

He plays for Washington. The Redskins won’t afford him a lead again for many weeks and they don’t score touchdowns. This week, against the 49ers, Washington is going to throw the ball a lot and will likely struggle to score per usual. That means it’s time to send Peterson back to the bench.

Josh Gordon, Wide Receiver, New England Patriots

The Josh Gordon nuclear-season dream is finally dead. Pairing a receiver of his talent with the greatest passer in NFL history was supposed to rain down fantasy points but Gordon has mostly disappointed. 

Gordon owns a 15% target share, tied with Rex Burkhead and Phillip Dorsett for third on the team. Even air yards can’t redeem the former star. Gordon is also third on the team market share of air yards (19%). 

The Patriots may be getting first-round rookie N’Keal Harry back from IR this week as well. The competition will drop his volume down another peg and he hasn’t been able to produce with where it’s at now. Gordon is still worth holding on to, but nothing more.