Start'Em and Sit'Em: Week 3
The story of Week 2 was one of injured quarterbacks. Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, and Cam Newton all suffered injuries of varying severities. Are their backups and weapons viable plays in going forward? Let’s find out.
Starts
Larry Fitzgerald, Wide Receiver, Arizona
This argument can apply to everyone in the Cardinals vs. Panthers game. It is an especially prescient argument for Larry Fitzgerald though.
The Cardinals have run 68 plays per game through two games and given what Kliff Kingsbury has done throughout his career as a head coach, this number should stay sky-high.
Carolina has also been running a large volume of plays thus far. They are tied with Arizona running the fourth-most plays per game.
Arizona’s offense is run through the slot and they have been deploying Fitzgerald in that role more than any other player. Fitz has played 86% of his snaps from the slot this season.
In the highest-pace game on the slate, Fitz is a must-start as the primary weapon for his offense.
Chris Carson, Running Back, Seattle
Carson literally fumbled away the chance to crush Pittsburgh when he put the ball on the ground again. This left the door open for Rashaad Penny to get some run and that’s exactly what he did. Penny got 10 carries and found the end zone once in Week 2. This will lead many to think that Carson may start losing time to Penny and sit him. Until Penny overtakes him entirely, Carson should still be in every fantasy lineup.
Seattle is only passing on 52% of plays. Last season, they were the only team to run the ball more than they passed. This trend is clearly here to stay. Carson may indeed lose some touches to Penny but he’s still the starting back on an offense determined to run the ball. Carson should bounce back nicely as a home favorite versus the Saints in Week 3.
Kyle Allen, Quarterback, Carolina
Kyle Allen is not worth starting if you have a quarterback that you actually drafted. However, with the losses of Andrew Luck, Sam Darnold, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, and likely Cam Newton, a lot of fantasy players are backed into a corner for Week 3. That is where Allen comes in.
If Cam can’t play on Sunday—he is currently nursing a foot injury—Allen is in a spot that is advantageous for all fantasy parties involved. See Fitzgerald, Larry.
He’s also a talented player in his own right. Allen averaged 7.4 yards per attempt in college and played well in his lone NFL start plus a drive in the game prior last season. Allen complete 64.5% of his pass attempts for 266 yards, two scores, and no interceptions.
Starting a road backup is never ideal but we’re if you’re in desperate need of any quarterback with a pulse, Allen is the play.
T.J. Hockenson, Tight End, Detroit
Hockenson followed up his stellar rookie performance with a dud of an outing in Week 2. He caught one ball for seven yards on three targets. All of those marks were obvious declines from Week 1. However, Hockenson did see one metric move in the right direction: snaps.
The rookie tight end played on 6% more snaps in Week 2 than he did in Week 1. His second outing just happened to feature 23 total points compared to 54 in Week 1.
This week he faces the Eagles in a game with a 47-point total. Fire up Hockenson again in a game that will feature a significant increase in scoring.
Curtis Samuel, Wide Receiver, Carolina
You thought I was done with this game?
Samuel has struggled mightily relative to expectations so far but Week 3 may see things turn around for him. Newton has displayed an incredible inability to throw deep since returning from a shoulder injury that cost him his 2018 season finale. Kyle Allen could easily be an upgrade for the quality of targets that Samuel is seeing. If that is the case, the volume has been there.
Curtis Samuel has run the second-most routes in the league (more than D.J. Moore) and is top-10 in air yards at 259. It’s only a matter of time before he bounces back and there’s no better spot than versus Arizona.
Sits
Kirk Cousins, Quarterback, Minnesota
There positive indicators for Kirk Cousins are hard to find these days. The Vikings have made it clear that they don’t want to pass the ball as much as almost any other team in the league. Through two games they are passing the ball on only 40% of their plays. Even last week, in a game that saw them trailing nearly the entire time, they only passed the ball on 55% of their plays.
Cousins has some of the best weapons in the league and the Vikings are deadset on not letting him use them. In turn, you shouldn’t be using Cousins either.
O.J. Howard, Tight End, Tampa Bay
Breakout darling O.J. Howard has fallen from grace since being drafted in the first five rounds a few short weeks ago. In two weeks Howard has managed five targets for 32 yards and 7.2 fantasy points. He has just 29 air yards to his name.
Howard is in a bounce-back spot but the volume doesn’t support a comeback for the young tight end. He was targeted zero times last week.
Joe Mixon, Running Back, Cincinnati
The Bengals were never expected to be a prolific offense and that wasn’t what was fueling Joe Mixon’s ADP. Mixon’s calling was volume. Now, injuries and the Bengals offense have taken that from him. Even if he’s healthy, the volume doesn’t look to be there.
In two games Mixon has 17 carries and five receptions. Giovani Bernard has 13 carries and three receptions.
Cincinnati has also made the full transition to a pass-heavy team. They lead the league and have passed on more than three-quarters of the plays they have run.
Now, in Week 3, he has to visit the Buffalo Bills and his team will be six-point underdogs.
This is setting up for another disappointing week for Mixon.
Eric Ebron, Tight End, Indianapolis
Eric Ebron was bailed out by a touchdown last week but his fantasy stock is plummeting. Ebron’s 38 air yards rank 25th among all tight ends. He’s bee targeted seven times through two games. On top of this, the Colts are hiding Jacoby Brissett behind a run-heavy attack. They have rushed the ball more often than they have passed this season.
Finally, Ebron is lucky to have scored once in two games. Brissett currently has a touchdown rate of over nine percent. That number would have bested Patrick Mahomes in 2018. Regression says that he will be throwing many fewer touchdowns heading forward. Ebron, who made his money by catching touchdowns last year, is not startable in fantasy leagues.
Keke Coutee, Wide Receiver, Houston
Coutee was not able to suit up for Week 1 after missing most of training camp due to an injury. While Coutee recovered, the Texans added Kenny Stills via a trade with the Miami Dolphins. Coutee finally took the field in Week 2 but failed to make a splash. He caught two balls for seven yards.
Coutee was on the field for 29 of Houston’s 66 offensive snaps in Week 2. It’s possible that this sticks going forward because of the depth around Coutee. Deandre Hopkins should play every snap and Will Fuller should play a similar amount of snaps because of the threat he adds and forces defenses to respect. That leaves Still and Coutee to battle for the final spot in three-receiver sets. Both are skilled receivers so until Coutee clearly gets to nod over Stills, there’s no reason to play a potential fourth receiver on even the Texans.