Every week we’ll be looking at a few players with controversial projections that might be hard t know whether to get them in your season-long lineup or to pull them for someone else. After a Week 1 highlighted by rookie wideouts popping off, let’s get to it.

Starts

Todd Gurley, Running Back, LA Rams

All off-season the Rams talked big game of scaling back the role for their stud running back Todd Gurley. They acted on it to signing Malcolm Brown to a second-round tender and trading up t get a dynamic and productive back in Darrell Henderson. 

Despite this, his ADP settled at the end of the first round. Now Gurley owners are left holding the bag that is a committee back that cost them their most crucial draft pick. The time to sell Gurley is now before people realize how damaging this downshift in volume will be to his fantasy output. 

This doesn't mean you have to bench this false god in your fantasy lineups. Gurley was given 14 carries and caught one pass in Week 1. He went over 100 yards from scrimmage in a game that would be considered a success for many players. Gurley is no longer the workhorse he once was but 15 touches on a top-three offense in the NFL is no wear near a bench-worthy player.

Matt Breida, Running Back, San Francisco

Tevin Coleman has been ruled out of Week 2 with an ankle injury leaving Matt Breida as the lead-back for San Francisco. Breida was given 15 carries and targeted once in a game where Coleman played roughly a half of football. The volume Breida should see when Coleman is out of the lineup entirely is enticing.

Breida has also been a hyper-efficient player in the past. Last year he played in 14 games, 13 of which he started for the 49ers. In total, he was given 153 carries and 31 targets. He averaged 5.3 yards per carry and 8.4 yards per target. 

Add a dash of volume to that efficiency and Breida is a must-play this week if you were lucky enough to snag him late in drafts or off the waiver wire. 

Mecole Hardman, Wide Receiver, Kansas City

Mecole Hardman was drafted late in the second round by Kansas City as a potential replacement for Tyreek Hill. At the time, Hill was expected to miss games with a suspension and Hardman fit his mold perfectly:

• 5’10”, 187 lbs.
• 4.33 speed
• Receiving and special teams production in college

Hardman didn’t dominate in college but neither did Hill. When paired with Mahomes, either is liable to go off in any game. Now, without Hill, Hardman assumes the No. 2 receiver role opposite Sammy Watkins and should see a lot of Hill’s volume funneled his way. Hardman is a lock against the Raiders in a game with a 52.5-point total. 

Josh Allen, Quarterback, Buffalo

Last week Josh Allen attempted 37 passes and had an average depth of target of 9.4 yards. Paired with John Brown, a perfect match for Allen’s skill set, he was able to make something of those attempts hitting a deep ball for his lone score of the day.

Allen also showed why, despite his questionable (at best) talent, he has one of the highest floors of any passer each week. Allen rushed 10 times for 38 yards. That’s essentially a free passing touchdown tacked on to this fantasy total that immobile quarterbacks are missing out on. 

Allen is an easy start against the Giants, who got absolutely shredded by Dak Prescott last week. 

Vance McDonald, Tight End, Pittsburgh

Vance McDonald was a favorite sleeper among man fantasy analysts after Pittsburgh let Jesse James walk in free agency. This left a starting role open on their offense that saw Ben Roethlisberger throw 675 pass attempts, the fourth-highest mark in NFL history.

Like every Steeler player in Week 1, Vance was a major bust and left is fantasy owners reeling.

This week he and the Steelers face off against the Seattle Seahawks from the comforts of Heinz Stadium in Pittsburgh. 

The Seahawks let Andy Dalton, an eight-year, replacement-level veteran, hit 418 passing yards. This marked his career-high in a single game. Now they’ll try to stop Big Ben and company. Try as they might, expect Ben and the entire Pittsburgh offense t role over this once-great secondary. 

Sits

John Ross, Wide Receiver, Cincinnati

In eight 13 games before this year, John Ross’ peak yardage total was 52 despite being a burner who can house-call any pass thrown his way. Even including his stunning 7-158-2 line from Week 1, Ross still averaged just 5.1 yards per target during his career.

Now he’ll face an improved San Francisco defense that stymied Jameis Winston in their opener. They sacked Winston three times and he put the ball on the ground twice. Now they get to feast on a Bengals line that has already been bitten by the injury bug, losing their starting and second lef tackle since the beginning of summer.

This will force Dalton to get the ball out of his hands quickly and that is not conducive for a good game by Ross, a player who needs time for his deep routes to develop. Tyler Boyd is a great play this week but be wary of starting Ross. 

Marquise Brown, Wide Receiver, Baltimore

Marquise Brown made a name for himself in Week 1 by posting a 4-147-2 line. He flashed the big-play potential that got him drafted in the first round and became one of the hottest waiver-wire pickups heading int Week 2. Because of his style of play, Brown may only need a single catch to be worth starting, so fade him at your own risk. 

However, volume is king in fantasy football and Brown so very little of it in his debut. Mark Andrews led the team in target with eight in the Ravens opener and Brown was hardly on the field at all. He played on just 18% of Baltimore’s snaps.

Brown was coming off Lisfranc surgery this summer so it’s possible that he’s being eased back in given his snap count. That puts a lot of weight on a very few snaps. If they don’t break his way, Brown could put up little to no points.

Adrian Peterson, Running Back, Washington

Derrius Guice is going to miss several games with an injury in the opposite knee that he tore his ACL last summer. That leaves Peterson as the starting back. This role may end up being more superficial than tangible. Washington left Peterson at home last week as a healthy scratch. 

This week the Washinton Redskins are 5.5-point dogs to the Cowboys. Being an underdog made Peterson an easy fade last season. 

When Washington was expected to lose by more than a fieldgoal Peterson posted 7.7 points per game. He averaged 15.4 in all other contests. Washington’s matchup with the Cowboys sets up much better for Chris Thompson than it does Adrian Peterson.

Jacoby Brissett, Quarterback, Indianapolis

When Andrew Luck abruptly announced his retirement, many of his fantasy owners were sent scrambling and wound up with his replacement in real life, Jacoby Brissett. That move panned out in Week 1 when Brissett found the end zone twice.

It won’t hit that often in the future. 

Despite playing from behind for a majority of the game, Frank Reich refused to put the ball in Brissett’s hands, instead opting to feed Marlon Mack, who got 25 carries. Brissett attempted 27 passes in a game that went into overtime. That’s not the volume you want from your starting passer.

People may points to his rushing ability as a solid floor but even that argument is flawed. Brisset gets above-average rushing volume but fails to ever do much with it. In his career, he averages 3.9 yards per carry. This is probably because he runs a 4.94 Forty-Yard Dash. 

Brissett has no floor and a capped ceiling every week in fantasy.

Eric Ebron, Tight End, Indianapolis

Even without Devin Funchess, who was placed on IR this week, Eric Ebron was bound to see a lowered target share in 2019. The team got Jack Doyle back and Paris Campbell to the mix via the draft. Ebron had to repeat his crazy touchdown efficiency to be a worthwhile pick at his ADP. Without Andrew Luck, Ebron is just a low-volume, non-touchdown-scoring tight end. Simply put, he can be cut from your fantasy roster.