Each week I will give a three pack of against the spread (ATS) picks that I like for the week along with giving some of my thoughts and analysis behind the pick. Feel free to tail them or fade them. Whichever you decide, just remember it is your money so it is your decision.

Overall Record 0-3 ATS

Buffalo Bills – 6 vs CIN

The Buffalo Bills have one of the best defenses in the NFL and now have a nice matchup at home in Buffalo. Joe Mixon has looked terrible for the Bengals so their run game is out of the question and this Bills secondary is tough to bet against. We just saw the trio of SF backfield run all over the Bengals last week so even if it is just Frank Gore for BUF, I think they will be fine. The total has gone up two whole points since open in this one which suggest some shootout potential which is good if you’re laying the points. I think the Bills cover comfortably at home this week.

New Orleans Saints + 4 @ SEA

This one may surprise some people but we have a classic overreaction in the betting markets to the Drew Brees injury. Seattle hasn’t looked to be all that good this season and despite 73% of tickets betting on the Seahawks -5.5, the line moved 1.5 points in favor of the Saints suggesting the sharp money is on the visitors here. Even with Teddy under center, the Saints still have two of the league’s best talents in Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas. You can still get 4.5 on some books but either way I think this gets down to 3 by kickoff Sunday.

Detroit Lions + 6.5 @ PHI

With Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson likely to miss this week, the Eagles are down to Nelson Agholor and Zach Ertz as their primary pass catchers. The Lions have a strong run defense with Snacks Harrison and the line has already moved in favor of the Lions by 1 points since open. I just don’t see how the Eagles hit their implied total of 26.25 which makes me see value on the Lions to cover here. Additionally the game total has dropped by 2.5 so if this game is going under then it will be difficult for the Eagles to cover a full touchdown spread. I’m with the public on this one and expect to see Lions reward backers this week.